Has A Small Group of Louisvillians Already Chosen the Next Mayor? Maybe.

On the night of June 13, Louisville Metro Council President David James sent out a series of tweets announcing that he was suspending his mayoral campaign to focus on his health after his recent prostate surgery. There were already several other candidates running for the Democratic nomination, but James seemed like a strong contender: he was the only current elected official running, and a black former police officer with government experience might have enough credibility with different constituencies in the community to be an ideal leader in a city that was divided by the police killing of Breonna Taylor and the protests and public debate that followed. The next day, Barbara Sexton Smith, who had served on the city council from 2017-2020 and was considered a potential mayoral candidate, announced that she would be the campaign chair for businessman Craig Greenberg’s mayoral run. 

I have connected James and Sexton Smith’s moves only in the sense that it’s possible Sexton Smith would not have endorsed Greenberg if her former colleague James were still running. With James and Sexton Smith not running, the leading Democratic candidates for mayor are Greenberg, pastor Tim Findley, and community activist and organizer Shameka Parrish-Wright. I suspect most Louisvillians don’t know much about any of these three people, but Greenberg is very tied into the city’s business and government establishments and already has the private support of a lot of political operatives and donors who have behind-the-scenes clout, as well as the public backing of Sexton Smith. The release of fundraising data from the first few months of the campaign confirm some of Greenberg’s advantages. He has raised about $425,000 for his campaign, compared to Parrish-Wright’s $15,000 and Findley’s $12,000, according to the Courier-Journal. (James had raised about $80,000.) 

Greenberg’s fundraising could deter other mayoral hopefuls from running---and create a dynamic where the media and others in the community treat him as effectively the-mayor-in-waiting. That shouldn’t happen, because at least right now, Greenberg’s support is not particularly broad. Based on the data released by his campaign, the bulk of Greenberg’s fundraising comes from about 400 people who have given him an average of more than $1000 each. It’s a great sign for Greenberg that he has such intense supporters. But 228,000 people in Jefferson County voted for Joe Biden last November—-there are plenty of people not committed to Greenberg’s campaign.

That said, Greenberg has some donors and political support that now are probably locked out for other candidates. He might be hard to beat. But I am not not writing off Findley or Parrish-Wright and I hope others enter the race too. I think basically all races should have a decently-large field of candidates who are diverse in age, race, gender and experience. Louisville in 2021 particularly should have such a race. And while Greenberg isn’t Greg Fischer, the city should debate whether, “white male businessman with no prior experience in elective office and a political base of upper-income white people” is a path it has already gone down and maybe trying a different one would be useful. Greenberg could be a great candidate and mayor, and I am impressed by what is on his website in terms of policy. But hopefully we are at the start of a strong campaign of competing visions and ideas, like what recently happened in New York City.