What’s Happened in Kentucky in 2019 and 2020 Could Be Coming to the Rest of America

Aug 19, 2020

A businessman with a record of saying outlandish things and no prior government experience wins a Republican primary in kind of a fluky way. He then wins the general election, probably helped by the facts that the Democrats had already been in charge for eight years and chose as their candidate a wonky, well-liked figure within the party elite who rank and file voters probably didn’t find too compelling. Once in charge, he constantly breaks with traditional democratic norms and values, governing with an authoritarian streak unlike his Democratic or Republican predecessors. GOP officials in the legislature privately disparage the party’s leader, viewing him as ineffective at core elements of politics like negotiating, but publicly stick with him, wary of offending the GOP base. To defeat him, the Democrats nominate a figure very closely associated with the last Democratic administration. That person runs a campaign eschewing bold and liberal ideas, instead running on character and values, arguing that he will bring normalcy back to government.

Matt Bevin=Donald Trump. Jack Conway=Hillary Clinton. Steve Beshear=Barack Obama. Andy Beshear=Joe Biden. Obviously this analogy is oversimplifying a lot, but it’s worth thinking about what has happened in Kentucky and what it might tell us about politics nationally.

On Election Night last November in Kentucky, Andy Beshear was clearly the winner. But Bevin opted not to concede. The margin was very close (around 5000 votes, 0.4 percent) though, so Bevin’s decision to ask for a legally-allowed recanvass of the vote instead of conceding was not too crazy. But along with the recanvass, Bevin and his team started suggesting that there were voting “irregularities” around the election---although they never quite specified what they were talking about and no one else in the state was aware of any problems. So from Election Night on Nov. 5 until Nov. 14, the date of the recanvass, there was some question about whether Bevin would actually acknowledge defeat and leave the governor’s office.

Here’s the good news. In the time between Nov. 5 and Nov. 14, non-partisan experts and the media sharply criticized Bevin for questioning the election results without any actual evidence of malfeasance. Few Republicans in the legislature joined Bevin in questioning the results. Perhaps most importantly, Sen. Mitch McConnell, the state’s most influential Republican, said publicly, “I’m sorry Matt came up short, but he had a good four years and all indications are, barring some dramatic reversal on the recanvass, we’ll have a different governor in three weeks.”

The message was clear--McConnell and other Kentucky Republicans weren’t going to break with democratic norms and values to keep Bevin in office. So when the recanvass was completed and it showed Bevin down by basically the same margin as he was on Election Night, he conceded. Perhaps Bevin never would have tried to challenge the results anyway, but his fellow Republicans basically made that decision for him.

You can see why what happened in Kentucky in 2019 is now relevant nationally. Trump is giving some indications that he won’t accept the results if he is defeated by Biden. But at least in Kentucky last year, a bunch of Republicans, most notably McConnell, wouldn’t go along with a scheme to question or overturn the election results. (These situations are different of course, most importantly in the sense that Kentucky does not have at the local level the equivalent of Fox News, a powerful news outlet amplifying whatever claims Republicans make, nor was there a high level of mail-in voting in last year’s Kentucky race, as there is likely to be this November across the country.)

Here’s the bad news. Post-election, Kentucky Republicans didn’t do a whole lot of soul-searching about how their party ended up being led by a person (Bevin) who ignored democratic norms and values, a person who they were fairly uncomfortable with. Instead, even amid a deadly pandemic, their new posture has been fierce anti-Beshear-ism, relentlessly and constantly attacking the Democratic governor. This anti-Beshear posture has forced Kentucky Republicans to also attack medical experts, the news media, teachers and other people and institutions who favor mask-wearing, distance-learning for students and other moves to help stem the spread of COVID-19. Kentucky Republicans aren’t led by Bevin anymore, but they are behaving like more polite versions of the ex-governor.

It’s easy to understand why. Bevin’s style didn’t come out of nowhere--his dismissal of expertise, anti-institutionalism and focus on demonizing his enemies (and the popularity of that approach with the GOP base) has deep roots within the current Republican Party, in Kentucky and nationally.

Nationally, it seems likely, based on current polls, that Trump will be out of office next January. But Trump didn’t come from nowhere either--the national GOP created an environment where such a politician could become its nominee and leader. And based on what we are seeing here in Kentucky, there may also be little appetite for Republicans in Washington next year to think deeply about how a leader with authoritarian tendencies grabbed control of their party--and therefore how to avoid repeating that in the future. If what is happening in Kentucky right now is an indication of America’s future, Republicans in Washington next year will be fiercely opposing proposals from President Biden on virtually every issue, including whatever his ideas are to stem the spread of COVID-19.

It’s not really a “recommendation”

Beshear has been urging school districts in the state not to have in-person learning for now, but also emphasizing that he is making a recommendation, not issuing an order. But schools districts that try to start in-person classes are being contacted by Kentucky Department of Education officials, who are imploring them to keep kids out of school buildings for now. Beshear, already being sharply criticized by the state’s Republicans for exerting his authority too much as he attempts to limit the spread of COVID-19, seems both wary of ordering schools to stay closed but also wary of actually allowing them to meet and potentially spreading the virus. So his posture makes sense, even as it seems a bit disingenuous for him to imply he is giving school districts a choice when he really isn’t.

There was a contentious hearing in Frankfort yesterday over the school opening issue, with some Republican lawmakers and officials in some school districts expressing frustration with the Beshear administration.

The school-opening issue has many facets. But at the core, it’s not too complicated. The arguments of those favoring limiting in-person instruction are essentially:

1. Teachers would have to risk their lives for their jobs and they didn’t sign up for a job where they might risk their lives;

2. Some students could get sick or even die if they get COVID at school; and

3. Having a ton of people in one place creates the potential for a major spread of the virus in a community, potentially affecting not only teachers and students at the school but a lot of people who never set foot on the campuses.

The arguments of those favoring going to full in-person schooling are essentially:

1. Kids aren’t learning nearly as much at home;

2. Not meeting in person perpetuates existing class/racial inequalities;

3. Some parents are exhausted with having their kids home with them all day and/or don’t have adequate child care; and

4. Each student/parent/school/school district should be able to decide on their own, as opposed to Beshear making this decision.

You could imagine a nation that created special financial incentives for some teachers to return to classrooms; allowed teachers worried about their health to either teach their classes online or perform other educational functions from home this year; created spaces for parents to take their kids during the day that aren’t schools with hundreds of people in them; and well, actually contained the virus effectively. We are not living in such a nation.

So in the situation that we are in now, the moral force of one side’s argument (those for limiting in-person instruction) is much stronger than the other side’s argument. So it seems entirely appropriate that the governor of the state is prioritizing containing the virus and saving lives over anything else.

Good news for Greg Fischer

On Monday afternoon, the seven Republicans on the Louisville city council started circulating a resolution condemning Greg Fischer and calling for his resignation. But so far, none of the council’s 19 Democrats have joined that effort. And on Tuesday, congressman John Yarmuth released a forceful statement attacking the attempt to depose Fischer. That is an important development. Any Democrat on the city council who was thinking about calling for Fischer’s resignation now has to consider if he or she wants to align with the city council’s Republicans over perhaps Louisville’s most well-liked Democratic elected official.

Here’s Yarmuth’s statement:

“The entire community should reject the efforts of Republican Metro Council members to undermine the Mayor of Louisville as he strives to lead us through an extremely difficult period in our history. Like most other major American cities, Louisville is facing several daunting challenges: legitimate calls for reform of our local policing policies; a persistent pandemic that has stressed every aspect of our civic life; and the economic consequences of months of restricted activity. Additionally, we have the unresolved case of the tragic killing of Breonna Taylor. Those challenges demand cooperative and thoughtful action. The baldly partisan move of the Republican council members is clearly designed to sabotage our local leadership at precisely the wrong time. It is irresponsible and damaging.”

“Republican council members should abandon their attempt to undermine Mayor Fischer, and I hope all Democratic council members will stand together against this ill-advised Republican effort as we work as a community to meet the tests of our time.”

Thanks for reading.

You can reach me at perrylbacon@gmail.com. I am always on the lookout for tips and suggestions for future stories. Feel free to email this story to others or share it online.