Will Charles Booker’s Second Senate Run Be More Successful Than His First?

Charles Booker officially announced on Thursday morning that he is running in next year’s election for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Rand Paul. The Democratic primary is May 17, 2022, the general election on Nov. 8, 2022. 

The answer to the question in the headline (will Booker’s second campaign be more successful than his first) is almost certainly yes. Booker is a big favorite to win the Democratic primary, which he lost last year. He isn’t likely to face a rival Democrat like Amy McGrath, who was endorsed by Washington Democrats and had raised a ton of money before Booker entered the race. He may not face any major competition for the nomination at all.

But Booker is very unlikely to be elected to the Senate. Donald Trump won by 26 percentage points here, Mitch McConnell won by 20. Kentucky isn’t a swing state or a red state, but a very red state that requires you to be super-mean to teachers and everyone else (Bevin, Matt) to lose (and barely) if you are a Republican. I don’t think predictions are particularly useful or important, and anything can happen, but in terms of expectations for this race, Booker is a longshot. 

The more interesting question, at least electorally, is probably this: can Booker get within single digits of Paul? On the plus side for Booker, compared to McGrath, 1. Booker is a more charismatic person than McGrath and 2. Paul is mean, has said lots of weird things about COVID-19 and doesn’t have the record of bringing money to the state that McConnell does. On the negative side for Booker, compared to McGrath, 1. Booker has embraced lots of liberal positions that McGrath didn’t and are likely to the left of most Kentuckians (reparations, the Green New Deal, a universal basic income, Medicare-for-All) 2. Booker is running with an incumbent Democratic president in the White House---congressional candidates from the party controlling the White House usually do worse, as voters seek to balance power in Washington. 

A more interesting question to me, than whether Booker will win, is this: will Booker do anything useful in his likely unsuccessful campaign? It wasn’t just that McGrath lost---she raised tens of millions of dollars for a campaign that didn’t do much to advance Kentucky Democrats or raise important issues. It was basically lots of tv ads talking about her life as a mother and a Marine. Can Booker use his candidacy to actually build up his “Hood to the Holler” theme of tying the interests of low-income people in Louisville to those in the rest of the state? Can his campaign register lots of voters and create enthusiasm that sets up Kentucky Democrats for future wins, like Stacey Abrams’ 2018 gubernatorial run in Georgia? Can he talk about race, inequality or any other issues in a way that spurs policy changes at the local or state levels?

Why Isn’t Charles Booker Running For the Job He Could Probably Win? 

There are currently three Democrats running to replace the term-limited Greg Fischer as Louisville mayor in a race that also takes place next year: pastor Tim Findley, businessman Craig Greenberg, and community activist and organizer Shameka Parrish-Wright. All three have real, laudable credentials, but none have ever held a major elective office before or have much of a political base. Booker served a single two-year term in the state House and spent much of his second year there (2020) running for the Senate, so he is hardly a master of governing. That said, he has held office and has a real base: he won 59 percent of the vote and 88,000 votes in the Louisville area (Jefferson County) in the primary against McGrath.

And in a general election, the Louisville area is about 60 percent Democratic, so the winner of the Democratic primary would be a heavy favorite to be elected mayor. 

I would have been excited to see Booker run for mayor, and my impression from talking to others in the community is that I’m not alone in this feeling. That said, it’s his life, not mine. Also, the problem with running for mayor if you are Booker is that you might win, and that may not be a particularly fun or easy job. Managing garage pickup and snow removal may not be that interesting to Booker. The mayor’s power is very limited in a state like Kentucky, where the GOP-controlled legislature is eager to enact laws that set policy in Louisville and can easily override the vetoes of Democratic governor Andy Beshear, who would prefer to let Louisville govern itself. The tensions between the police and activists wary of them may be unsolvable, as may the income and racial disparities in the community. 

In contrast, being a senator is a lot less management and plays to Booker’s strengths in communicating an inspiring vision and connecting with people.