Will Louisville Add a Member to "The Squad?"
In the video and short speech she gave over Zoom Wednesday morning to launch her candidacy for the U.S. House, state representative Attica Scott embraced the Green New Deal and abolishing the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency. She quoted Ayanna Pressley, the Massachusetts congresswoman who is part of “The Squad”---the group of the most liberal Democratic members of the House.
The Squad is apt in thinking about Scott’s candidacy. Louisville already has a fairly liberal congressman in John Yarmuth, who Scott is seeking to unseat. He helped write the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill that passed earlier this year. On most issues that will come to a vote in Congress, it’s likely that Yarmuth and Scott would have the same position and vote the same way. The difference is that Scott, if elected, is likely to align herself with The Squad and use this congressional seat to push the national Democratic Party to the left on a wide range of issues in a way that Yarmuth has not. Scott is likely to be an unabashed supporter of the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, reallocating police funds to other agencies, reparations and other ideas that Yarmuth either is unlikely to embrace or will only do so when the broader Democratic Party is moving in that direction.
So to put it simply, do Louisvillians want an Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-type as their representative, or a more traditional Democrat like Yarmuth? That’s the big question about Scott’s candidacy. Scott, in her speech, didn’t criticize Yarmuth by name and didn’t really attack him by implication either. “Now is the time to choose bold leadership over complacency,” she said, in perhaps her most pointed line at Yarmuth, who was first elected to the House in 2006. She nodded to her “life experiences” being more representative of the community than those of Yarmuth, who is a millionaire.
Scott might be more critical of Yarmuth as the campaign goes on. But it makes sense that she didn’t criticize Yarmuth much. Her candidacy seems to be less “John Yarmuth is a bad member of Congress” and more “Louisville can and should elect a bolder and more progressive member of Congress.”
Identity issues are very much at play here
“For too long, black women and women in general have been told to wait our turn,” Scott said in one of several references in her speech to the need for more black women to be in leadership positions. Scott’s leadership on racial issues in the city and state, particularly over the last year, is likely to be a credential in her favor among Louisville Democratic voters. And in a city that has long been led by white male mayors and white male House members, Scott’s candidacy will force questions of representation to the forefront. Is it time for Louisville to have a black House member or mayor (it has never had either before), even if it means replacing a well-liked white person?
“We often talk about being a diverse, inclusive and welcoming city. Imagine what it would mean to celebrate, elevate and recognize that diversity with our vote,” Scott said.
I”m grappling with this issue of race and representation personally in this instance. Before he was in Congress, Yarmuth, a graduate of Yale University, used to interview prospective Yale students from the Louisville area as part of the school’s admissions process. Yarmuth interviewed me back then and wrote a very positive recommendation letter. I was admitted to Yale and graduated from there. I have remained friendly with Yarmuth and while acknowledging my obviously-biased perspective because of our history, have generally considered him to be a good congressman, including on racial issues.
Notes on the Electoral Process
Redistricting. It is not totally clear if Yarmuth or Scott or any Democrat will be able to win this seat next year. Kentucky’s 3rd congressional district right now is largely just the Louisville-Jefferson County area, which is about 60 percent Democratic. But Republicans are considering changing the makeup of the state’s six congressional districts, so that they could win all six of them, instead of just five. (So if they divide up the Louisville area, each Republican member might have a smaller chance of winning, but the chances of the GOP coming out ahead in all six districts would go up.)
If the district is dramatically changed, I would expect the 73-year-old Yarmuth to retire.
Yarmuth’s retirement. Yarmuth has talked about retirement before and doesn’t seem like he is on the Dianne Feinstein path (she is 88 and still serving as a senator from California.) So there is some potential he bows out and clears the way for a younger replacement even if he thinks that he could defeat Scott.
Scott’s future. One reason for Scott to run now is to position herself to win this seat when Yarmuth does retire. Even if she loses in 2022, she would have increased her name recognition and established herself as a potential congresswoman.
A Potential Primary. Let’s say the district remains as it currently is and Yarmuth and Scott both run. Democratic primaries throughout the country suggest that the party has three distinct cohorts: a more progressive bloc that is mostly white and skews towards people under age 50; a liberal-but-not-that liberal bloc that is mostly white and skews towards people over age 50; and a black bloc that is also not that liberal but might support a different candidate than the second bloc, particularly a candidate with some longstanding ties to black voters. (There are other cohorts but these three are clear and show up in race-after-race.) So the first group likes a candidate like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, the second group someone like Pete Buttigieg, the third group someone like Joe Biden.
About a quarter of Democratic voters in a primary in Louisville are likely to be black and not super-progressive. (I don’t have a great metric for calculating the ideological breakdown among white Democrats.) Just at first glance, Scott’s path to defeating Yarmuth seems hard to me. The cohort of over 50, moderate Democrats is going to vote overwhelmingly for Yarmuth, as they are unlikely to want an AOC-style member of Congress representing them. Yarmuth may be left enough for many progressives. And I would not assume that Scott will win that black bloc because she is black and Yarmuth is white. Yarmuth has a lot of connections among Louisville black leaders and voters from serving as the congressman for so long.
The Mayor’s Race. I think it’s entirely possible that in early 2023, we have Mayor Craig Greenberg and U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth while Charles Booker and Attica Scott are popular figures in Louisville who aren’t serving any office. The decisions by Booker and Scott to opt against running for a job (mayor) where there is no incumbent and the winner of the Democratic nomination is likely to be elected are a bit surprising. On the other hand, Scott could have this House seat for two decades if she wins, and Booker would be a serious presidential candidate the moment he was declared the winner over Rand Paul.
The Democratic Left. A group called Justice Democrats supported AOC and other left-wing candidates who successfully challenged incumbent House Democrats. There is no indication so far that Justice Democrats is backing Scott, nor are the string of left-wing groups that endorsed Booker last week. Such groups may get involved in the race later, particularly if Scott seems like she has a strong chance of winning. But that lack of early support on the left fits with a broader story that might be at play here: Yarmuth is pretty left, so there may be a limited appetite for an aggressive effort to defeat him.
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